According to the Associated Press of Finance, “the demand for IGBT at the vehicle specification level exceeded expectations this year.” An insider of a domestic IGBT manufacturer said to the reporter with emotion.
The reporter of the Associated Press of Finance learned from many IGBT related manufacturers in China that many of the existing new production lines of many companies are in the ramp up period of capacity. At present, there are sufficient orders in hand, and there is a general backlog of orders. The existing capacity is still unable to meet the overall market demand. All companies in the industry believe that although all manufacturers are busy expanding production, it will take at least 24 months for the new expansion project to actually put into production. It is too early to predict the supply and demand balance point, and the subsequent new orders or the market will rise.
Now there is great pressure to guarantee supply, and new expansion orders are locked in advance
“Since this year, the production and sales of electric vehicles have been rising, and everyone (automobile manufacturers) needs to use this thing (IGBT).” A person from the securities department of Times Electric (688187. SH) told the Associated Press of Finance, “The volume of electric vehicles this year exceeded the company’s expectations, and foreign manufacturers can not supply so many goods. At present, it is a time window where demand exceeds production capacity.”
A supply chain personage told the reporter, “To exaggerate, for example, the customer needs 10000 IGBTs, while the company can only supply 1000, naturally everyone will beat the lead, because this will directly affect the production capacity of the whole vehicle.” In fact, many suppliers have reached a consensus that the supply and demand gap of IGBTs in the vehicle specification reaches 50%. The reporter confirmed from communication with many related companies that the existing capacity has been sold out. When the vehicle gauge IGBT is in short supply, the delivery pressure is high, and the orders in hand have been scheduled to the end of this year or even next year.
According to the latest survey summary of Time Electric, many orders have been found by customers recently. In recent months, we have often received many important customers. In order to add thousands of IGBTs in a quarter, we are actively communicating with the company. At present, IGBT in China is in a very short supply, and the delivery pressure of the whole industry will be great next year.
People from the securities department of Hongwei Technology (688711. SH) said that the capacity of the new production line of IGBT module, the main driver of new energy vehicles, is climbing up, with the capacity reaching tens of thousands of pieces per month. The saturation of vehicle specifications in hand can last until the end of the year. The company is now anxious about whether the delivery can meet the needs of customers in a timely manner. With the subsequent release of production capacity, it is expected that the proportion of this business revenue will increase next year.
The financial report of Stargate Semiconductors (603290. SH) shows that in the first half of the year, the company’s main driver IGBT modules continued to be released, supporting more than 500000 new energy vehicles. It is expected that the number of supporting vehicles will continue to increase in the second half of the year. By the end of the first half of the year, the contractual liabilities had increased nearly four times over the previous period.
A technical expert from a downstream automobile manufacturer analyzed the reporter and said that the IGBT of the vehicle specification is mainly Infineon, accounting for more than 50%. At present, the domestic IGBT may only be mass produced by Starr Semi conductor, BYD and Time Electric. Fuman electronic data shows that the Q3 lead time of Infineon IGBT is 39-50 weeks.
The expansion progress of overseas leading manufacturers is lower than expected, and the delivery time continues to extend. Domestic car manufacturers are gradually accepting domestic IGBT for the sake of supply chain security, and are also interested in cultivating domestic IGBT manufacturers. 2022 will also be a year when the share of domestic IGBT manufacturers will increase significantly.
The above-mentioned people from Hongwei Technology Securities Department believe that there are many reasons. First, automobile manufacturers have enhanced their recognition of domestic (IGBT) brands; Second, the gap between domestic and foreign products has narrowed after the improvement of domestic technical level; Third, domestic products are more cost-effective; Fourth, the delivery response was more timely.
The price of domestic IGBTs may rise along with the market, and the supply and demand balance point is far away under the tide of production expansion
In September this year, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 611000, a record high in a single month. Guotai Jun’an expects that the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 6.5 million in 2022. The development of new energy vehicles continues to exceed expectations, promoting the application of IGBT in vehicle specifications. In 2021, the market share of new energy vehicles in the downstream application of IGBT in China will be 31%, and the cost of IGBT will account for 7% – 10% of the vehicle cost.
Under the current imbalance between supply and demand, major domestic manufacturers are expanding their production. At present, the capacity of Phase II of Times Electric is close to the design capacity of 240000 pieces. The company plans to invest 5.826 billion yuan in the construction of Yixing project, which can increase the production capacity of 360000 pieces of 8-inch medium and low voltage module base materials annually after reaching the capacity; Smurvey (600460. SH) plans to increase the annual production of 360000 pieces of 12 inch chip production line, and add 120000 pieces of FS-IGBT power chips per year after reaching the capacity… More enterprises are joining the production of IGBT.
When will the inflection point of supply and demand for IGBT of vehicle specifications emerge? In this regard, many relevant listed companies told reporters that from the current order situation and the process of future production expansion, the arrival of the supply and demand balance point may be too early.
According to the analysis of the reporter by the above-mentioned macro and micro technology securities department, all new production lines of IGBT have passed strict quality verification and testing cycles, and they cannot be produced after the equipment is in place. Although the scale of the industry’s planned expansion is relatively large, reaching the production capacity is a goal, which requires a long climbing process, during which dynamic adjustment can be made, such as industrial control and photovoltaic fields need to use IGBT. At present, there is no node where supply will exceed demand in the market.
The people from Slim Micro Securities also told the reporter that the 12 inch wafer expansion will improve the company’s wafer production capacity, which can be fully used for IGBT products and internal allocation.
In the opinion of insiders of Times Electric, IGBT of vehicle specification level is also in short supply this year and next year. From 2024 to 2025, the degree of shortage may gradually ease. Many customers now want to lock orders directly to 2025.
From the perspective of the project expansion cycle, for example, the construction period of Shidai Electric Phase III Project is about 24 months, and the construction period of Shilan Micro Fixed Increase Project is 3 years. During this period, it will also experience the certification period of downstream manufacturers and the ramp up period of new production line capacity and yield. It is not easy to break the capacity bottleneck of IGBT.
The reporter noted that Infineon, which mainly focuses on the high-end car gauge market, had previously announced a price increase, and the market expected that it might plan to increase the price of industrial and automotive components in the fourth quarter. Insiders of many companies in the industry mentioned above all said that if the overall market price rises, it is possible to follow the trend of the market. Some people in the supply chain also said that the new orders will increase a little.
From the perspective of companies that have disclosed the latest performance, Times Electric’s net profit in the first three quarters increased by 30% year on year, benefiting from the revenue of power semiconductors such as new energy IGBT; In the first three quarters of the year, macro and micro technology increased by 31% (96% in Q3).
Post time: Oct-21-2022