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The development of deep re inventing semiconductors and the deployment of high wall barrier chips are just in time

The semiconductor industry has obvious periodicity. ICInsights estimates that the correlation coefficient between the global semiconductor growth and GDP growth in 2019-2024 is 0.90, which shows that the semiconductor industry is highly correlated with the macro-economy. At the same time, the overlapping supply and demand mismatch shows obvious periodicity. If the supply of the original wafer capacity decreases due to external factors, such as the shutdown caused by the epidemic in 2020, the demand for repetitive orders in the downstream will increase, thus amplifying the industry volatility. In the product category, the volatility of memory chips is the largest, and the volatility of analog chips and discrete devices is close to that of the industry as a whole; In the industrial chain link, the sales of semiconductor equipment are highly volatile, while the sales of semiconductor materials are less volatile. Due to the different catalytic factors of each round of semiconductor cycle, the stock price performance of semiconductor enterprises in different cycles is different.

 

During 2012-2015, the performance of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lagged behind the changes in semiconductor fundamentals. After the year-on-year growth of semiconductor monthly sales increased significantly, the performance of Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was stronger than that of NASDAQ. However, in the two cycles after 2016, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index showed leadership. For example, in June 2019, the growth rate of semiconductor monthly sales hit the bottom on a year-on-year basis. Since November 2018, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has continuously outperformed the NASDAQ Index.

 

At present, China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency rate is still low, and the capital market helps enterprises develop. According to the data of ICInsights, the scale of China’s chip market in 2021 will be US $186.5 billion, the output value of local chips will be only US $31.2 billion, and the self-sufficiency rate will be 16.7%, while the self-sufficiency rate of enterprises headquartered in China will be only 6.6%. As of November 11, 2022, there are 120 listed companies of SW Semiconductor, with a total market value of 2.88 trillion yuan. The time of establishment is concentrated in 2000-2010, and the time of listing is concentrated in 2020 and beyond. From the perspective of revenue growth, the growth rate of SW Semiconductor’s total revenue hit the bottom in 2018. From 2019 to 2021, with the recovery of industry demand and gradual realization of domestic substitution, the revenue growth rate will increase year by year, and will be 37% in 2021.

 

The change of terminal applications is an important driving force for the development of the industry, and the simulation, power and other auxiliary chips in the fragmented scene are more beneficial. The application of electronic terminals has experienced several rounds of major innovation, from PC to smart phone to AI. During this period, it has driven the development of CPU, mobile phone SoC, storage, GPU and other chips. Leading manufacturers have achieved a relatively monopoly position relying on the advantages of ecology, advanced manufacturing process, patent monopoly, scale and so on. Now in the era of the Internet of Things, the fragmented scene has driven the demand for simulation, power and other auxiliary chips. From 2015 to 2021, the stock prices of Italian French Semiconductor, Texas Instruments, Infineon and other auxiliary chip manufacturers have performed well, with small monthly fluctuations. Due to the decentralized downstream, large quantity and low price, the breadth of products and customers is the source of the competitive advantage of the auxiliary chip manufacturers. At the same time, the auxiliary chips are mainly based on mature manufacturing processes. Domestic enterprises have the opportunity to gradually break through from point to area and take the lead in localization.

 

Guosen Securities concluded that enterprises that have accumulated in the domestic chip substitution window period are expected to take the lead in entering the high-quality development stage.

 

 

Comment: With the recovery of consumer terminal demand, the industry is expected to return to the boom upward cycle. At the same time, domestic chip substitution has entered the deep-water area, and the high barrier chip is the blue ocean market of domestic chip substitution in the next 3-5 years.

 

Here, by integrating the latest research information of more than 10 securities companies, such as Tianfeng, Anson, Guoxin, etc., four company profiles are brought to fans for reference only.

 

 

1. Tuojing Technology

 

The company expanded its product coverage around the subdivided field of CVD equipment. Thermal ALD, high-density plasma HDPCVD (PF-300T (single station), TS-300 (polygonal high capacity platform) based on high-capacity platforms, and UVCure for film UV curing have all obtained customer orders. The company’s PECVD/SACVD/ALD equipment is used in the field of 3DNAND/DRAM/logic chips, and is the main supplier in the process of accelerating the replacement of domestic equipment. Its revenue is expected to accelerate growth.

 

——Great Wall Securities (002939)

 

2. Chuangyao Technology

 

The company focuses on developing 16 port office chips that support the VDSL235b standard. At present, the global office chips are almost monopolized by an enterprise of Broadcom, which is expected to break the existing market pattern in the future. In addition, the company actively expands new application fields beyond DSL and PLC. In terms of on-board communication, the company’s on-board short-range wireless chip is in the design stage, which is expected to be applied to wireless active noise reduction, vehicle machine interconnection, vehicle VR/AR and cloud interaction and other fields in the future. In terms of industrial Internet, the company’s high-speed industrial assembly interconnection chip samples have been returned, and is currently actively promoting performance evaluation and mass production.

 

——Southwest Securities

 

3. Gekewei

 

The company’s fund-raising project “12 inch CIS integrated circuit characteristic process R&D and industrialization project” is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to achieve line connection and risk mass production in the second half of this year. This project is a major symbol of the company’s transition from Fabless to Fab lite mode. Under the background of global BSI wafer supply tightening, the company’s supply of 12 inch BSI wafers is guaranteed, and the key production steps of CIS special processes are controlled independently.

 

——Founder Securities

 

4. New strength

 

Kuanpu Technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has been engaged in radio frequency and microwave business for special applications for more than 20 years. It has a team of more than 100 R&D technicians. In 2021, it will complete more than 170 new product R&D projects, providing full guarantee for long-term sustainable growth in the future. Quanpu Technology has moved to a new site in May 2022 as a whole. The current production and R&D site area is about twice the original area. The bottleneck of insufficient capacity has been effectively solved. At present, the daily production of Quanpu Technology is in full load operation. The company expects that the annual production capacity of the new plant will reach more than 1 billion yuan after the full capacity is reached.


Post time: Dec-09-2022


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